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Modest Easing of Supply Chain Risk Predicted for 3rd Quarter

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Lehigh Business Supply Chain Risk Management Index shows anxiety over sole-source dependencies.

The results of the Lehigh Business Supply Chain Risk Management Index for the third quarter of 2025 said eight out of ten risks declined, making a modest easing of overall risk. Supplier Risk remains the highest-ranked risk, reflecting continued anxiety over sole-source dependencies, geographic concentration, quality issues and price volatility.

“Government Intervention Risk was the only category to rise, moving into the second-highest risk, highlighting ongoing unease around regulations, tariffs and trade restrictions,” said Zach G. Zacharia, associate professor of supply chain management and director of the Center for Supply Chain Research at Lehigh.

According to the LRMI, Economic Risk dropped, but remains elevated, signaling persistent challenges related to energy costs, shortages, and border delays. While Cybersecurity and Data Risk declined slightly, it maintained its position as the fourth-highest risk.

“The average risk index decreased, indicating a slight improvement in risk,” said Zacharia, “however, the risk landscape remains highly dynamic and challenging for supply chain leaders.”

The LRMI was launched in 2020 by the Center for Supply Chain Research at Lehigh and the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals in order to rank 10 broad categories of supply chain risks. According to Zacharia, the LRMI enables executives and supply chain managers to anticipate and prepare for risks that will become significant in planning for the next quarter. The risk categories are cybersecurity and data, customer, economic, environmental, government intervention, operational, quality, supplier, technological and transportation disruption.

A unique feature of the LRMI is the opportunity to compare all 10 risk categories directly against each other, rather than scoring each one individually. When supply chain professionals take that approach, the top four risks for the third quarter of 2025 are government intervention, supplier, economics and cybersecurity.

Another valuable aspect of the LRMI is that the quarterly reports include a sampling of candid comments from supply chain managers about each risk category that takes you beyond the numbers. Comments from this new 3rd quarter report include:

  • As ocean carriers reconfigure their global networks and ship rotations based on tariffs and ship taxes, this will lead to delivery schedule inconsistency.
  • I waited three weeks to make a formulation because I was waiting to receive a $200 chemical.
  • This is tricky because tariffs increase risk, but government regulations should decrease; thus, it’s a complicated wash.
  • Everyone seems to be cutting discretionary spending.
  • We've witnessed an increase of foreign actor cyber-attacks in the past 90 days.
  • Read more comments.

LRMI reports are available every quarter in March, June, September and December.

To get the latest report for free and to find out how supply chain managers can take the LRMI survey for the next quarter visit the Lehigh Business Supply Chain Risk Management Index site.

About the Center for Supply Chain Research at Lehigh
CSCRL bridges theory and practice to promote a collaborative exchange of ideas on critical issues affecting supply chain management. By leveraging Lehigh’s faculty, students, alumni and industry partners, the Center brings the latest developments in research and best practices together to generate new ideas for education and future knowledge in the field of supply chain management. Learn more.

About the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals
CSCMP's mission is to connect, educate and develop the world's supply chain management professionals throughout their careers. No matter where you are in your career development, CSCMP has the resources and network to help you achieve your goals. Learn more.